Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense for Week 9 Derek Carty October 31, 2025 at 9:47 PM 0 Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you'll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I'll be digging into 3 players projected to play above their usual level, and 3 players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m.
- - Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense for Week 9
Derek Carty October 31, 2025 at 9:47 PM
0
Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you'll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I'll be digging into 3 players projected to play above their usual level, and 3 players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
If you listened to my advice last week (especially the fades), you're probably quite happy. Jake Ferguson was a massive bust, Tony Pollard started ceding work to Tyjae Spears and Cam Skattebo left early with an injury — not how I drew it up, but it happens. On to Week 9 …
Kyren Williams, Rams
THE BLITZ Week 9 Projection: 19.5 carries, 3.0 receptions, 108 yards, 1.00 TD
Week 9 vs. ROS: RB4 vs. RB15
Holy matchup boost, Batman! Williams gets one of the biggest I've seen all year, and for good reason. The Rams are tied for the highest team total of the week (29 points) and are 14-point favorites against the Saints, which should mean plenty of running in the second half of the game. The Saints are also the fastest-paced offense in football (by a lot), which means they should be giving the ball back to L.A. quickly, driving up total play volume. Williams' role as a workhorse is firm, and spots for rushing volume don't get much better than this.
Keenan Allen, Chargers
THE BLITZ Week 9 Projection: 8.2 targets, 5.4 receptions, 59 yards, 0.39 TD
Week 9 vs. ROS: WR24 vs. WR33
Keenan Allen may be "old and boring," but he's still so freaking good. Despite Ladd McConkey (23% target share), Quentin Johnston (18%) and the emergent Oronde Gadsden II (20% last three weeks) on the roster and getting more snaps than him, Allen continues to be a target magnet, earning the most on the team (25%). He did the same thing last year in his healthy games with the Bears, out-earning DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. At a certain point, we have to stop underrating this guy and just accept that he's a top-36 WR — AKA, a WR3 in 12-team leagues. He does his best work against zone defense, and the Titans play zone shells third-most in the league, setting him up well for Week 9. (It's worth noting that Johnston is also better against zone, while McConkey tilts much more toward man.)
Nico Collins, Texans
THE BLITZ Week 9 Projection: 8.2 targets, 5.4 receptions, 59 yards, 0.39 TD
Week 9 vs. ROS: WR11 vs. WR16
Nico Collins has a fairly large man/zone split, favoring his ability to beat man coverage. Lucky for him, the Broncos play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. And with star cornerback Patrick Surtain II injured, this sets up as a potential boom spot for Collins. This is particularly true given that he plays this game at home, indoors and in the fourth-fastest paced game of the week. The game script projects close, so he should have a good opportunity to be peppered with targets from C.J. Stroud all game long.
Daniel Jones (and Indy pass-catchers), Colts
THE BLITZ Week 9 Projection: 34.1 attempts, 20.8 completions, 239 yards, 1.75 passing TD
Week 9 vs. ROS: QB16 vs. QB9
I've seen stats floating around this week about how favorable a matchup the Steelers defense has been for QB fantasy scoring this year, but it's important to remember that stats like this lack context and have a ton of noise (eight weeks is still a very small sample when it comes to defensive stats). I'm as big a fan of Indiana Jones as anyone, highlighting him Week 1 in this space, but I'm more skeptical this week. The Colts go on the road, outdoors and play as favorites (more rushing) but without a huge team total (just eighth-highest of the week). The Steelers play man defense at a top-five rate in football, but Jones' splits favor zone shells. So do those of his top two targets: Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren. There may be better options available this week.
Chuba Hubbard (and also Rico Dowdle), Panthers
THE BLITZ Week 9 Projection: 6.1 rushing attempts, 1.3 receptions, 35 yards, 0.14 TD
Week 9 vs. YTD: RB49 vs. RB25 (per-game basis)
Is it finally Rico Dowdle time? It may be (although I wouldn't rush to put him into your lineup just yet … more on that in a minute). Take a look at this amalgamation of quotes (sourced from the Coachspeak Index Discord) from head coach Dave Canales on the situation:
I don't like to paint myself in a box and say that a guy can't lose his job to injury … These are hard discussions that we have to have … Chuba has meant a lot to this organization — certainly to the identity that we wanted to build our team on … [I] wanted to give Chuba the opportunity to go out there and to continue to impact our team in a positive way. We cannot ignore the fact that Rico has been exceptional in a couple of games … [Giving a heavier workload to Dowdle is] something we're looking at. And, again, you have to respect the job that Chuba has done for us to get us to the point where we've established the mentality about how we run … [Keeping players happy] is not the goal. The goal is to make sure that we put the right guys out there, that's my job. I really do have to look at that and evaluate it and make the best decision for the Panthers.
To me, this sounds like a coach who loves Chuba Hubbard, appreciates everything he's done, wanted to give him a chance to win his job back but who just can't justify continuing to play him as much as he has been anymore. I'm expecting a much heavier dose of Dowdle this week, although the spot is a tough one. The Panthers are monster underdogs to the Packers, who are favored by 13.5 points, so as much as Canales likes to establish the run, he will likely have to abandon it early here. Worse yet, this game projects as the slowest-paced of the week, so total volume figures to be down as well.
Jameson Williams, Lions
THE BLITZ Week 9 Projection: 2.9 receptions, 45 yards, 0.25 TD
Week 9 vs. ROS: 9.2 PPR points vs. 10.2 PPR points per game
I've never been a big Jamo guy for fantasy purposes, but if you are going to use him, it's best to use him when he's facing man-heavy coverage. His athleticism gives him one of the largest man/zone splits of any wide receiver in the league, leading to more targets and greater relative efficiency. And quarterback Jared Goff's splits also lean that direction. Unfortunately for Williams' fantasy managers, this week the Lions square off against the Vikings, who run man shells at a bottom-five rate. The Lions are also nine-point favorites, which should give them plenty of opportunity to run the ball and eat clock, with this game projected on the slower side in terms of pace this week.
Source: "AOL Sports"
Source: Sports
Published: October 31, 2025 at 04:28PM on Source: CR MAG
#ShowBiz#Sports#Celebrities#Lifestyle