Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast To Take Sharp Turn Offshore Southeast US; Hurricane Humberto To Brush Bermuda Jonathan Erdman, Jennifer Gray, Rob Shackelford, Sara Tonks, Jonathan Belles and Caitlin Kaiser September 29, 2025 at 4:40 AM 0 Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane and tak...
- - Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast To Take Sharp Turn Offshore Southeast US; Hurricane Humberto To Brush Bermuda
Jonathan Erdman, Jennifer Gray, Rob Shackelford, Sara Tonks, Jonathan Belles and Caitlin Kaiser September 29, 2025 at 4:40 AM
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Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane and take a sharp turn out to sea well off the Southeast coast by Tuesday. Despite this, both Imelda and Hurricane Humberto will generate high surf, rip currents and some coastal flooding along parts of the East Coast.
Meanwhile, both storms could impact Bermuda within about 24-36 hours this week.
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Tropical Storm Imelda: A Bahamas Threat, Southeast Sideswipe
Happening Now
Tropical Storm Imelda is churning through the Bahamas with locally heavy rain and gusty winds. So far, a peak wind gust to 44 mph was clocked at Nassau, and just over 2 inches of rain was recorded the past 24 hours at Over Yonder Cay, about halfway between Nassau and Exuma.
Tropical storm warnings are now in effect only for the northwestern Bahamas, including Freeport. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are forecast to last in the Bahamas into Tuesday.
No watches or warnings are in effect for the Southeast U.S. coast.
Imelda's Track Forecast
Imelda will take a sharp turn to the east by early Tuesday, keeping its stronger winds and the majority of its heaviest rain away from the Southeast U.S.
However, this could bring Imelda close to Bermuda late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning as a hurricane. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the forecast closely and have their hurricane plan ready.
How Strong Could Imelda Get?
Deep, warm ocean water, including the warm Gulf Stream current, moist air and relatively modest wind shear will allow some strengthening over the next few days.
Imelda should become a high-end Category 1 hurricane by midweek, with some models even brushing Category 2 strength as the storm moves near Bermuda.
Forecast Wind ShearPotential Impacts
Imelda will still have impacts along parts of the Southeast coast even though it won't make a landfall.
That said, its farther offshore trend is lessening the threat from locally heavy rainfall. Only a few areas near the immediate coast may see over an inch of additional rainfall the next day or so from the Carolinas to Florida. Only isolated flash flooding is now expected in these areas.
Rainfall Outlook
Days of onshore winds will generate dangerous high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to New England, due not only to Imelda but also to Humberto, as well as strong northeast winds lingering behind high pressure building southward out of Canada later this week.
Obey any alerts at East Coast beaches this week and, if in doubt, stay out of the surf zone.
With Imelda's far offshore track, we aren't expecting any significant impacts from wind along the Southeast U.S. coast.
Hurricane Humberto
We're also watching Humberto, which is moving through the Atlantic as a powerful, major hurricane.
The storm is currently located over 300 miles south of Bermuda, where a tropical storm watch is in effect.
While its core of strongest winds is expected to remain west and north of Bermuda, a brush of tropical storm force winds is possible, there, beginning Tuesday. High surf and dangerous rip currents will also lash the islands the next several days.
Humberto underwent rapid intensification on Friday, with its maximum sustained winds jumping from 65 mph to 145 in only 24 hours. The storm then went on to become the second Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin so far this season.
Though it is back to Category 4 strength, Humberto is expected to remain a powerful, major hurricane for several days.
(MORE: What Does The Forecast Cone Mean?)
Projected PathRecap: Disturbance In The Caribbean
The tropical wave that eventually spawned Imelda first brought widespread rainfall of 1 to 4 inches across Puerto Rico, with the heaviest totals being reported across the southern parts of the territory. No surprise that this heavy rainfall brought some flood and landslide reports across Puerto Rico highways, with one car being washed out with people still inside. At least one person was killed.
The forecast for the system that eventually became Imelda was very uncertain.
In just 48 hours from last Friday evening — when the first cone of uncertainty was issued — to Sunday evening, the NHC forecast changed significantly from a potential landfalling hurricane in the Southeast U.S. to a hard east turn well before the storm could reach the coast, as the graphic below shows.
Source: "AOL AOL General News"
Source: CR MAG
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