Potential US Threat From 'Imelda' Early Next Week As Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast To Become A Hurricane Jonathan Erdman, Jennifer Gray, Rob Shackelford, Sara Tonks and Jonathan Belles September 25, 2025 at 4:40 AM 0 Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane in the central A...
- - Potential US Threat From 'Imelda' Early Next Week As Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast To Become A Hurricane
Jonathan Erdman, Jennifer Gray, Rob Shackelford, Sara Tonks and Jonathan Belles September 25, 2025 at 4:40 AM
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Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane in the central Atlantic, but the next system to develop — Imelda — may become a larger threat to parts of the Southeast U.S. and Bahamas as the hurricane season shifts into a higher gear following Hurricane Gabrielle.
There is still a lot of uncertainty as to the details of how this will all shake out into next week, so please check back with us at weather.com for important updates in the days ahead as the forecast gradually becomes clearer.
Here's our latest thinking, including a potentially strange wild card from this pair of systems.
Tropical Storm Humberto Will Become A Hurricane
Tropical Storm Humberto late Wednesday afternoon and is several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. It's moving toward the northwest and is no threat to the Leeward Islands, nor the rest of the Caribbean.
It is forecast to become the season's third hurricane this weekend and could be of some threat to Bermuda early next week, but is unlikely to be a U.S. threat.
(MORE: What Does The Forecast Cone Mean?)
Projected PathFuture 'Imelda' A Bigger Concern For The U.S.
A tropical wave currently moving through Hispaniola — designated as Invest 94L — will continue wringing out showers with locally heavy rain and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Puerto Rico today. This activity will then spread to eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.
(MORE: What An 'Invest' Means In Hurricane Season)
Current Radar
It's when this system is near the Bahamas that we expect it to develop into Tropical Storm Imelda by this weekend.
NHC Development Chance
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for this "future Imelda".
Most computer forecast models draw Imelda northward through or near the Bahamas through Sunday.
Beyond that, there appears to be two main scenarios emerging:
1. Imelda could continue moving north and plow into the Carolinas as either a tropical storm or hurricane early next week.
2. Imelda could stall off the Southeast coast for a day or two early next week before either being pulled east away from the coast, possibly toward Bermuda, or being absorbed by Humberto.
Spaghetti Models for the Invests
Even if Imelda doesn't ever make a landfall in the U.S., days of onshore winds are likely to generate dangerous high surf, rip currents and at least some coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to New England next week.
Imelda could also draw close enough to produce bands of heavy rain and strong wind gusts along parts of the Southeast coast, even if it never makes a landfall, as Hurricane Erin did in August.
All interests in the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast (especially from Florida to North Carolina) and Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of this forecast.
As usual for late September, there is plenty of deep, warm ocean water that could fuel tropical development in this area, as was the case with Hurricane Gabrielle.
Ocean Heat ContentA Weird Possibility
One factor in this forecast is that both Humberto and Imelda could be close enough to each other to do a kind of circular dance, what meteorologists call the Fujiwhara effect.
Sometimes the larger system can grab hold of the smaller one and absorb it. Other times, both systems can creep closer and spin around each other before going on their own paths.
This happened in recent years most often in the Pacific Basin, including last year with tropical storms Emilia and Fabio.
If this interaction happens in this case, it could help keep Imelda from making landfall and, if Humberto is strong and large enough, could even absorb Imelda.
We'll keep an eye on this possibility and spell out what it could mean for you if this "dance" becomes more imminent.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on these systems.
Source: "AOL AOL General News"
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