Tropical Storm Gabrielle May Form By This Weekend And Is Potential Lesser Antilles Threat Next Week Jonathan ErdmanSeptember 5, 2025 at 12:00 AM 2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle may develop as soon as this weekend in the eastern Atlantic.
- - Tropical Storm Gabrielle May Form By This Weekend And Is Potential Lesser Antilles Threat Next Week
Jonathan ErdmanSeptember 5, 2025 at 12:00 AM
2
Tropical Storm Gabrielle may develop as soon as this weekend in the eastern Atlantic. While its future is still uncertain, it could pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles later next week as the annual peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives.
Where This System Is Now
A cluster of thunderstorms, now known as Invest 91L, is moving westward away from the Cabo Verde Islands. This is about 1,800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.
These systems are important because they are often the seeds of future tropical storms during hurricane season.
Possible NHC Development When Development Could Happen
This tropical wave will continue to move toward the west-northwest this week over the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
This system may have to battle both pockets of dry, stable air and wind shear in the eastern Atlantic for the next several days, both nemeses of tropical systems.
But according to the National Hurricane Center, this tropical wave could undergo "gradual development" during the next several days. And most model forecasts suggest this will eventually become Tropical Storm Gabrielle either by this weekend or early next week.
Currrent Wind Shear, NHC Development AreaCaribbean Concern?
There is plenty of time to watch this system. This weekend, it's still expected to be hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
An increasing number of computer forecast models suggest "future Gabrielle" could track over or at least "brush" parts of the Lesser Antilles next Thursday, Sept. 11. This is particularly the case if this system remains farther south and/or if it remains weak.
However, there are still a number of model forecast tracks that curl it north of the Leeward Islands next week.
For now, interests the Lesser Antilles should simply monitor the progress of this system.
Beyond that, most model tracks eventually curl Gabrielle northward into the Atlantic. But it's too soon to know whether that recurve would happen like last week's Tropical Storm Fernand (well out to sea with little impact) or could be more of a threat to Bermuda. At this time, there isn't a direct threat to the U.S. coast from Gabrielle.
Check back with us at weather.com in the coming days for updates to this forecast.
More Activity Ahead
Future Gabrielle could mark the start of a more active period in the Atlantic Basin that could last through the rest of September.
That's when an environment more supportive of tropical development — including lower wind shear and more moist, unstable air — could gradually work its way into the Atlantic Basin.
That lines up with the typical mid-September peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
hurricane season activity
So far this season, we've been pretty fortunate. We're near an average pace for both storms (six) and hurricanes (one). The season's only hurricane, so far — Erin — avoided a landfall, though it did bring flooding rain to the Leeward Islands, as well as coastal flooding, rip currents and some winds to the East Coast.
However, about 70% of the season's activity typically occurs from September onward.
Develop or refresh your hurricane plans now, while it's quiet, before a hurricane threatens.
2025 Season Hurricane Tracks, So Far
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
Source: "AOL AOL General News"
Source: CR MAG
Full Article on Source: CR MAG
#ShowBiz #Sports #Celebrities #Lifestyle