We watched the sun go down in Islamabad and then come up again as these marathon talks went on. To endwithout a dealmarks a fundamental blow to nascent hopes of finding an off-ramp to this crisis.
These were meetings of huge consequence –– the highest-level talks between US and Iranian officials since the formation of the Islamic Republic in 1979 –– and it’s hard to underestimate just how complex the discussions have been.
Beyond what was said in the room, technical papers were exchanged and reviewed repeatedly. But the two sides were simply too far apart, not just in substance, but in style and temperament. The respective delegations went into these talks with vastly different approaches: US Vice PresidentJD Vanceappeared to be after a relatively quick solution after the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, but Tehran typically moves much slower,negotiating over the long term.
With Vance saying America has put forward its “best and final” offer, the ball now seems to sit firmly in the Iranian court. And if there are going to be more talks, Iran will have to change its position somehow.
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Iran believes the talksfailed because of “excessive” US demands, and it’s clear from both sides that nuclear enrichment is a key sticking point. Tehran has insisted for years it would not build a nuclear weapon and that it only wished to pursue a nuclear power program, but its actions ramping up the level of enrichment of uranium in recent years caused great concern in the West — and were the catalyst for last year’s 12-day conflict with Israel. Iran still appears unwilling to give up on enrichment. The White House wants a cast-iron commitment that Iran won’t build a nuclear weapon.
As the talks played out, we saw various statements released through Iranian media that appeared aimed at a domestic audience, some explaining why Tehran had even entered diplomatic talks at all with its longtime enemy. Its foreign ministry went so far as to spell out that diplomacy was “the continuation of the sacred jihad of the defenders of the Iranian land.”
The two-week ceasefire itself was struck against the backdrop of a maximalist threat from US President Donald Trump to annihilate a civilization and blow up Iran’s power plants and key infrastructure. Whether that threat comes into play again is now a key question.
Two other fundamental questions hang in the air: How will Iran respond to the US walking away? And how much longer will the global economy be stuck in limbo?
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