Kansas law revoking right to drive threatens our right to exist, trans residents say

Some 1,700 Kansans had their driver's licenses invalidated last month. It wasn't for racking up speeding tickets or a DUI charge, but because they are transgender.

NBC Universal Justine Goode / NBC News; Getty Images

Kansas is one of five states to prohibit trans people from changing the gender marker on their licenses, but it is the first to pass a law that retroactively cancels licenses that were already changed. The law also invalidated birth certificates for those who updated their gender markers.

Hundreds of trans drivers already received letters from the state informing them their documents were "invalid immediately" and they "may be subject to additional penalties" if they continue to drive, unless they surrender the license to the Kansas Division of Vehicles and receive a new one with their birth sex.

"I'm pretty heartbroken," said Jaelynn Abegg, a 41-year-old trans woman living in Wichita who received a letter. She said she will not turn in her license and plans to move this month to another state.

Jaelynn Abegg (Courtesy Jaelynn Abegg)

"It is a continuation of the message that the Legislature has been sending out for years now, and that is that transgender people are not welcome in Kansas," she said.

Two anonymous trans residentssuedKansas last month, arguing that the law violates state protections for personal autonomy, privacy, equality, due process and freedom of speech. On Tuesday, Douglas County District Judge James McCabria declined to grant a temporary restraining order against the law while the case proceeds.

McCabria wrote in his decision that there isn't enough evidence to show that trans people will face harassment and discrimination if they have to use bathrooms or show IDs that conflict with their gender identities.

Kansas law was years in the making

Kansas had allowed trans people to update the gender markers on their IDs since 2007. Then in 2023, it changed its legal definition of sex to be male or female and assigned at birth.

Fifteen other states have made a similar change in the past few years — and President Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring that there areonly two unchangeable sexes. The State Department nowprohibits trans people from changingthe gender markers on their passports.

Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach sued the state, arguing that allowing people to update their gender markers violated the 2023 law. Last year, the Kansas Supreme Court affirmed an appeals court decision and allowed gender marker changes to resume.

Transgender Rights-IDs (John Hanna / AP)

In January, Kobach backed the new bill he said would "correct an error" by the courts. The state Senate added a provision prohibiting trans people from using bathrooms that align with their gender identities in government-owned buildings. It was passed without public comment. The penalties for violating the provision can be $1,000 for individuals and up to $125,000 for government entities with more than one infraction.

Last month, Democratic Gov. Laura Kellyvetoed the bill,saying the Legislature "should stay out of the business of telling Kansans how to go to the bathroom and instead stay focused on how to make life more affordable for Kansans." Days later, the Republican-held state Legislature overrode her veto.

Kansas House Speaker Daniel Hawkins, a Republican,said in a statementat the time that the law's purpose was to protect women. "This isn't about scoring political points, but doing what's right for women and girls across our communities," he said, according to the Kansas Reflector. Hawkins did not respond to NBC News' request for comment.

State Rep. Mark Schreiber, the only Republican to vote against the bill, told NBC News he agreed with the appeals court that Kobach could not show how allowing trans people to change the gender markers on their licenses caused harm to the state.

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"I don't have any trans folks in my family, but I know trans people," he said, adding that they aren't looking for special privileges and just want to live their lives. "And we seem to keep passing laws that keep getting in the way of that."

Harper Seldin, one of the ACLU attorneys involved in the lawsuit, said during court arguments Friday that the Kansas Legislature singled out trans Kansans "for unique social stigma."

"They were suddenly required, with no notice or opportunity to be heard, to present themselves to the DMV to obtain driver's licenses that announced to everyone — the teller at the bank, the clerk at the hotel, the poll worker on election day — that they are transgender," Seldin said.

Trans peoplehave longreportedfacing more harassment and discriminationwhileusing IDs that don't align with their genderidentity or expression, and many trans Kansans said they fear that their daily risk of facing such harassment would only increase as a result of the law.

'There was no plan whatsoever'

Over the last five years, dozens of states have considered bills targeting transgender people, but the majority of those have targeted people's ability to play on school sports teams that align with their gender identities and minors' access to transition-related care. In the last few years, state and federal policies have shifted to focus on changing legal definitions of sex and restricting access to updated identity documents.

A flag promoting LGBTQ rights sits in the House chamber as Republicans prepare to push for a ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors last year. (John Hanna / AP)

Logan Casey, director of policy research at the Movement Advancement Project, an LGBTQ think tank that tracks legislation, described these broader laws as "gender regulation laws" that attack the fundamental rights and identity of trans people.

"The point all along for the people pushing these bills and these attacks has been to single out transgender people and create a license to discriminate against transgender people and remove them from public life," he said. "In effect, trying to get them to stop being transgender."

Kansas' law took effect immediately after it was published in the register Feb. 26. A spokesperson for the Kansas Department of Revenue told the Kansas Reflector that the lawinvalidated about 1,700 licenses. The department did not respond to a request for comment. During the court hearing Friday, Kobach said the department had so far sent letters to 275 Kansans and 138 had received new licenses.

Andrea Ellis, a 34-year-old trans woman living in Wellington, said she received a letter Wednesday even though she never changed the gender marker on her license — she only legally changed her name on it in December. She drove to the DMV the next day, where she said staff were confused about what to do and said her license had a "flag" on it.

Andrea Ellis (Courtesy Andrea Ellis)

They cut the corner off her license and gave her a temporary one. But later that day, they called her and said she had to return to the DMV because they made an error. When she went back, she said they gave her another temporary license that looked the same as the first.

"They claim that it was thought out, and everything else, but there was no grace period unlike any other kind of rollout program," Ellis said. "There was no plan whatsoever."

Some trans residents, like Matthew Neumann, said they still haven't received any notification regarding their licenses. Neumann, who is the executive director of the LGBTQ Foundation of Kansas, said he's been checking the validity of his license every day on the Kansas Department of Revenue website, and it's still valid as of Friday.

Neumann said his organization has raised funds to help trans Kansans pay to update their licenses. Getting a license with an updated gender marker costs $8.75, while receiving a new ID is $26.

Matthew Neumann and his service dog, Zelda. (Courtesy Matthew Neumann)

Neumann has lived in Larned, Kansas, for 20 years and said he will never leave. He said he's been threatened over his restroom use, and he fears he could face more harassment under the new law.

"I'm just disappointed and frustrated," he said. "I'm just hoping that maybe this is the wake up call we need," he said.

Kansas law revoking right to drive threatens our right to exist, trans residents say

Some 1,700 Kansans had their driver's licenses invalidated last month. It wasn't for racking up speeding tickets ...
Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Thewar on Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single question: Who can take the pain the longest?

Associated Press FILE - A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohsen Ganji, File) FILE - Policemen stand on top of their car with pictures of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right and left, and his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to him, center, during a rally to support him in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) FILE - Drivers navigate a busy intersection past a sign displaying the current gas prices at a filling station in Plano, Texas, March 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File) FILE - Plumes of smoke rise as strikes hit the city during the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) FILE - People gather in a rally to support Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

Iran US Analysis

A surge in oil prices points to what may be Iran's most effective weapon and the United States' biggest vulnerability in continuing the campaign:Damaging the world economy. A sharp rise in gas prices hasrattled consumersand financial markets, and international travel and shipping have been severely disrupted.

U.S. President Donald Trump appears aware of the danger. As oil jumped to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, the highest since 2022, he suggestedthe war would be "short-term."That helped reassure markets and the price eased to around $90 — even as Trump, nearly in the same breath, vowed to keep up the war and the punishment on Iran.

On the other side, Iran has to endure a near-constant stream of American and Israeli airstrikes it can't defend against. So far, the Islamic Republic has been able tokeep its leadershipand military cohesive and in control. The Iranian public, which already rose up against its theocracy in nationwide protests in January, stillboils in angerbut have stayed home as they try to survive the heavy bombardment. Security forces have been on the street every day to ensure no anti-government demonstrations form.

The pressure is on U.S. allies as well. Gulf Arab states, while still not combatants in the war, face seemingly unending and occasionally fatal Iranian fire targeting oil fields, cities and critical water works. And Israel, while boasting of inflicting heavy damage on Iran's missile program and other military targets, continues to be targeted by increasingly sophisticated Iranian missiles that send a buckshot-like bouquet of high explosives raining down on its cities. Frequent air-raid sirens have disrupted daily life, closed schools and workplaces and created a tense atmosphere across the region.

No off-ramps seen in fighting

There's no immediate end to the war in sight — nor in the rhetoric coming from both America and Iran, whose bad blood extends back decades to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.

"We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," Trump said in a speech Monday in Doral, Florida. "We go forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger once and for all."

Iranian Foreign Ministry official Kazem Gharibabadi offered a mirror image comment from Tehran, boasting that the Islamic Republic had rejected contacts about a ceasefire that he said had come from China, France, Russia and others.

"At the moment, we hold the upper hand," Gharibabadi told Iranian state television late Monday night. "Just look at the state of the global economy and energy markets — it has been very painful for them."

He asserted that it was Iran that "will determine the end of the war."

Iranian strategy remains havoc

For years before Israel and the U.S. launched the war on Feb. 28, Iran warned that, if attacked, it would retaliate on the entire Middle East, targeting the oil infrastructure that made its Gulf Arab neighbors fantastically wealthy. By contrast, Tehran's economy has been crippled by international sanctions.

Iran has now backed up its threat with barrages of missiles and drones. Qatar was forced to halt its production of natural gas, and Bahrain declared its oil operations couldn't meet their contractual obligations. Other producers like Saudi Aramco are affected, disrupting a key source of energy for Asia — particularly China, which has sent a top envoy to the region.

Shipping broadly has stopped in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil and natural gas traded passes, and up to 30% of world fertilizer exports. Iran didn't need to mine the waterway — its attacks on several ships prompted companies stop sending their vessels through the strait.

Trump has suggested U.S. warships providing escorts to tankers, but that has yet to materialize in a way to restart the traffic.

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Early Tuesday morning, he threatened that if Iran stops the oil through the strait, "they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far."

"Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!" he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Iran, however, only doubled down. The Revolutionary Guard warned on Tuesday that it won't allow "a single liter of oil" to leave the Persian Gulf.

What is victory?

For Iran's theocratic rulers, victory means surviving the campaign still in power, no matter the costs to the country and the region.

Trump has been vague and contradictory about his aims in the war. At times, he seems to push for overthrowing Iran's theocracy; other times, he seems to be willing to stop short of that, saying broadly that he wants to ensure Iran is no longer a threat to Israel, the region and the U.S.

That could give him flexibility in declaring that victory has been achieved, especially if real damage starts to show to the U.S. economy.

But if the war stopped right now, both the U.S and Israel would be left with major challenges.

One is Iran's leadership. After an Israeli airstrike killed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the war, Iranian clerics named his 56-year-old son Mojtaba to the position, elevating him to the rank of an ayatollah.

Now Iran's ultimate ruler, the younger Khamenei has long been viewed by analysts as being even more hard-line than his father, with close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. Israel already described him as a target in its campaign, while Trump has said he wanted someone else in the role.

Also, Iran still has its stockpile of highly enriched uranium – one reason for the war that Israel and the U.S. have both pointed to. Iran had been enriching up to 60% purity, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites in June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, likely burying much of the stockpile in the debris. Those sites to this day remain out of the reach of international inspectors.

Mojtaba Khamenei could issue a religious ruling, or fatwa, reversing his father's earlier statements and ordering it to be used to make a weapon. That's something both America and Israel, long believed to be the Mideast's only nuclear-armed state, don't want to see.

EDITOR'S NOTE —Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.

Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Thewar on Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single ques...
Disappointing economic indicators spark stagflation worries | The Excerpt

On the Wednesday, March 11, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:Alarm bells on the health of the U.S. economy are ringing. Could a recession be next? USA TODAY Money Reporter Andrea Riquier joins The Excerpt to share her latest insights as to where the economy is headed.

USA TODAY

Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it.This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.

Podcasts:True crime, in-depth interviews and more USA TODAY podcasts right here

Dana Taylor:

Alarm bells on the health of the US economy are ringing. An unexpectedly dismal jobs report, growing unemployment, and the ensuing uncertainty over trade policy piled on top of surging oil prices make the financial outlook particularly bleak this month. Could a recession be next?

Hello, and welcome to USA TODAY's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Wednesday, March 11th, 2026. Joining me to discuss recent economic indicators and what might lie ahead is USA TODAY Money Reporter Andrea Riquier. Andrea, thank you so much for joining me.

Andrea Riquier:

Hey, Dana. Thanks for having me.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea, you wrote that economists, analysts, and investors are concerned right now about the possibility of stagflation. What is stagflation and is this something we should be concerned about?

Andrea Riquier:

So stagflation refers to a really uncomfortable moment in the economy where economic growth is stagnant, it's not growing or even receding, and yet inflation is high. Typically, you see inflation higher when growth is strong, but this is uncomfortable because the policy responses are opposite for each one. When you have high inflation, you might want to raise interest rates to keep demand lower, and when you have slow growth, you might want to drop them in order to stimulate demand. So stagflation is a really difficult place for the economy and for the policymakers.

Dana Taylor:

A big concern with American consumers right now is the US-Israel war on Iran. Trump has waffled on his estimation of how long this conflict could last and how much it might cost Americans. Meanwhile, gas prices have been spiking across the country. What can you tell us here?

Andrea Riquier:

So I actually checked the nationwide gas prices just before we started recording. Across the nation, the average is $3.55. Obviously, there's huge local disparities, but it has been suggested that the $3.50 cent mark is roughly where things start to get a little uncomfortable for American consumers. If this is as high as we get and prices fall back from here, maybe it's not so difficult for most American consumers, most households. If it stays elevated like this, things could start to get very uncomfortable for people. The President has said that people should be okay with a little short-term discomfort in order to settle things for the long term, but American households are strapped for enough money to go around to buy everything that they need already. We'll just have to see where things go from here. There could be a quick resolution to this war, or it could drag on.

Dana Taylor:

Let's turn now to the latest jobs report, what does it say? And are you at all surprised?

Andrea Riquier:

It was a surprising jobs report. The labor department said that 92,000 jobs were lost in the month of February. They also downgraded the overall number for the full year, '25. And when you average out the 181,000 jobs that were created throughout 2025, that comes down to about 15,000 jobs a month, which is barely treading water. So take any one month with a grain of salt, but when you look at the longer trend over say 14 months, it does not look good.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea, help me put the latest unemployment numbers into perspective here. We saw robust hiring numbers in January, right?

Andrea Riquier:

Right. Again, take any one month with a grain of salt, but when you smooth it all out over a period of time, it looks like a slower growth, slowing economy.

Dana Taylor:

PresidentDonald Trump's signature economic policy centered on his trade policies involving tariffs. Those have recently been thrown out by the Supreme Court. He says that he has other ways to accomplish the same thing, but that it might take a little time to implement. How big of a role is that uncertainty playing here?

Andrea Riquier:

I think it's playing a big role. There's a lot of uncertainty around the tariffs that quite likely makes a lot of businesses a little bit more hesitant about committing to long-term plans like hiring, like capital expenditures, other than the AI infrastructure boom that we've talked about a lot, but it's certainly not helping on the margins. The Supreme Court decision on the tariffs is not the only big headwind out there in the economy. Obviously, the war is another one, and it's just a lot of uncertainty in a midterm election year as well for businesses to process, and it doesn't necessarily look like every business is going to go out and start shedding workers the way they did say in the COVID-19 pandemic, but it doesn't give a lot of comfort for wanting to commit to things long-term either.

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Dana Taylor:

Economists with the Joint Economic Committee have put the cost of tariffs for the average American family at $1,700. Can Americans expect to see this money refunded at any point?

Andrea Riquier:

Yeah, that's the $1,700 question, right? I think we would all like to see some money back. I'm not sure that there's any way to know for sure. We know that a lot of companies have filed lawsuits about this. I think everybody would like a little bit of that money back, but I think that that could drag on for a while and I wouldn't bet on it, let's put it that way.

Dana Taylor:

What are we hearing from the Fed on the state of the economy? I believe their next meeting is next week.

Andrea Riquier:

That's right, the March meeting is next week. A lot of them have come out recently since the start of the Iran War and said exactly what we said at the top of the hour, this really complicates things. Again, a slow growth economy could be stimulated by rate cuts, but higher inflation, which to some extent they're a little more concerned about, would call for rate increases. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed said last Friday that a perfectly acceptable response to where we are right now is just to hold steady, to not do anything. And that's what most investors expect them to do for the foreseeable future.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea, we're also expecting to see a new Fed chair in May. That might change things, right? Tell me about that.

Andrea Riquier:

So first of all, Kevin Warsh still has to be confirmed and that process hasn't started yet, but yes, Donald Trump has nominated him with the belief that Kevin Warsh will be a little bit more amenable to cutting rates than Jay Powell has been. We know that Kevin Warsh, he has served on the Federal Reserve Board before, and we know that he has a pretty good understanding of the lay of the land. And I don't think anybody can expect any particular policymaker to move in one direction or another, given all the uncertainty, all the crosswinds that are going on right now. We'll just have to wait and see.

Dana Taylor:

I know consumer sentiment plays a big role in the economy. What's the news on that front?

Andrea Riquier:

We've talked a lot over the past say year or so about this K-shaped economy where higher income Americans are seeing their fortunes go up and moderate and lower income Americans are seeing things deteriorate. Consumer sentiment has really been in the toilet. There was a little bit of an improvement over the past couple readings, but not much. There's been this real discussion among economists and other analysts about whether Americans are just complaining because the health of the economy actually is pretty strong or what the disconnect is.

I think that seeing some of these official numbers start to reflect more what we're seeing in the sentiment numbers is pretty telling. Seeing, as we talked about earlier, a downgrade in the jobs picture from last year that helps explain some of the negative sentiment that we've been hearing about a lot. One person I talked to for this story about stagflation made the very, very prescient comment that we don't have to have an official diagnosis of stagflation for people to feel like we're really in a slow growth, high price environment, and that's just not fun for anybody.

Dana Taylor:

And finally, Andrea, how are you feeling about using the R word right now, are we teetering on the brink of a recession at this point, or is it too soon to tell?

Andrea Riquier:

I don't think it's too soon to tell. I think that teetering on the brink might be a little bit too dramatic, but I do think that there is reason to watch very closely. Some economists have increased the likelihood of a recession over the next say 12 months, but only to say 25% from 20%. Things would have to go pretty wrong for us to have sustained negative growth, but as we've talked about this entire session, there are a lot of headwinds in the economy right now.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea Riquier is a USA TODAY money reporter. Andrea, thank you so much for sharing your insights here.

Andrea Riquier:

Thanks, Dana. Take care.

Dana Taylor:

Thanks to our Senior Producer Kaely Monahan for her production assistance. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts@usatoday.com. Thanks for listening, I'm Dana Taylor, I'll be back tomorrow morning with another episode of USA TODAY's The Excerpt.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Low job numbers combined with high inflation sours economists' views | The Excerpt

Disappointing economic indicators spark stagflation worries | The Excerpt

On the Wednesday, March 11, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:Alarm bells on the health of the U.S. economy are ringin...
UK will publish files about the appointment of Epstein friend Mandelson to ambassador post

LONDON (AP) — The British government said it would publish files related to the appointment ofPeter Mandelsonas ambassador to the U.S. on Wednesday, as police investigate potential misconduct stemming from the ex-diplomat's ties to the lateJeffrey Epstein.

Associated Press Peter Mandelson, the former U.K. ambassador to the United States, leaves his house in London, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung) Peter Mandelson, the former U.K. ambassador to the United States, leaves his house in London, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung) Peter Mandelson, the former U.K. ambassador to the United States, leaves his house in London, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

Britain Epstein Mandelson

Lawmakers haveforced Prime Minister Keir Starmer's governmentto disclose thousands of files about the decision to name Mandelson to the key diplomatic post at the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, despite a past friendship with the convicted sex offender.

The government has said the files will show that Mandelson misled officials about the extent of the relationship.

Mandelson, 72, a former Cabinet minister, ambassador and elder statesman of the governing Labour Party, was arrested Feb. 23 at his London home on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He has been released without bail conditions as the police investigation continues.

He has previously denied wrongdoing andhasn't been charged. He does not face allegations of sexual misconduct.

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Cabinet minister Darren Jones said the "first tranche of documents" will be published Wednesday afternoon.

The documents are being published in batches after review by Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee. Police have asked the government not to release files that could compromise their criminal investigation into Mandelson.

Starmerfired Mandelsonin September after earlier revelations about his Epstein ties, but is facing a political storm over his decision to give him the Washington job in the first place.

Documents ina huge trove of Epstein filespublished by the U.S. Department of Justice in late January suggested that Mandelson sent market-sensitive information to the convicted sex offender when he was the U.K. government's business secretary after the 2008 financial crisis.

That includes an internal government report discussing ways the U.K. could raise money, including by selling off government assets. Mandelson also appears to have told Epstein he would lobby other members of the government to reduce a tax on bankers' bonuses.

UK will publish files about the appointment of Epstein friend Mandelson to ambassador post

LONDON (AP) — The British government said it would publish files related to the appointment ofPeter Mandelsonas ambassado...
Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Thewar on Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single question: Who can take the pain the longest?

Associated Press FILE - A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohsen Ganji, File) FILE - Policemen stand on top of their car with pictures of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right and left, and his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to him, center, during a rally to support him in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) FILE - Drivers navigate a busy intersection past a sign displaying the current gas prices at a filling station in Plano, Texas, March 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File) FILE - Plumes of smoke rise as strikes hit the city during the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) FILE - People gather in a rally to support Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

Iran US Analysis

A surge in oil prices points to what may be Iran's most effective weapon and the United States' biggest vulnerability in continuing the campaign:Damaging the world economy. A sharp rise in gas prices hasrattled consumersand financial markets, and international travel and shipping have been severely disrupted.

U.S. President Donald Trump appears aware of the danger. As oil jumped to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, the highest since 2022, he suggestedthe war would be "short-term."That helped reassure markets and the price eased to around $90 — even as Trump, nearly in the same breath, vowed to keep up the war and the punishment on Iran.

On the other side, Iran has to endure a near-constant stream of American and Israeli airstrikes it can't defend against. So far, the Islamic Republic has been able tokeep its leadershipand military cohesive and in control. The Iranian public, which already rose up against its theocracy in nationwide protests in January, stillboils in angerbut have stayed home as they try to survive the heavy bombardment. Security forces have been on the street every day to ensure no anti-government demonstrations form.

The pressure is on U.S. allies as well. Gulf Arab states, while still not combatants in the war, face seemingly unending and occasionally fatal Iranian fire targeting oil fields, cities and critical water works. And Israel, while boasting of inflicting heavy damage on Iran's missile program and other military targets, continues to be targeted by increasingly sophisticated Iranian missiles that send a buckshot-like bouquet of high explosives raining down on its cities. Frequent air-raid sirens have disrupted daily life, closed schools and workplaces and created a tense atmosphere across the region.

No off-ramps seen in fighting

There's no immediate end to the war in sight — nor in the rhetoric coming from both America and Iran, whose bad blood extends back decades to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.

"We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," Trump said in a speech Monday in Doral, Florida. "We go forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger once and for all."

Iranian Foreign Ministry official Kazem Gharibabadi offered a mirror image comment from Tehran, boasting that the Islamic Republic had rejected contacts about a ceasefire that he said had come from China, France, Russia and others.

"At the moment, we hold the upper hand," Gharibabadi told Iranian state television late Monday night. "Just look at the state of the global economy and energy markets — it has been very painful for them."

He asserted that it was Iran that "will determine the end of the war."

Iranian strategy remains havoc

For years before Israel and the U.S. launched the war on Feb. 28, Iran warned that, if attacked, it would retaliate on the entire Middle East, targeting the oil infrastructure that made its Gulf Arab neighbors fantastically wealthy. By contrast, Tehran's economy has been crippled by international sanctions.

Iran has now backed up its threat with barrages of missiles and drones. Qatar was forced to halt its production of natural gas, and Bahrain declared its oil operations couldn't meet their contractual obligations. Other producers like Saudi Aramco are affected, disrupting a key source of energy for Asia — particularly China, which has sent a top envoy to the region.

Shipping broadly has stopped in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil and natural gas traded passes, and up to 30% of world fertilizer exports. Iran didn't need to mine the waterway — its attacks on several ships prompted companies stop sending their vessels through the strait.

Trump has suggested U.S. warships providing escorts to tankers, but that has yet to materialize in a way to restart the traffic.

Advertisement

Early Tuesday morning, he threatened that if Iran stops the oil through the strait, "they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far."

"Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!" he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Iran, however, only doubled down. The Revolutionary Guard warned on Tuesday that it won't allow "a single liter of oil" to leave the Persian Gulf.

What is victory?

For Iran's theocratic rulers, victory means surviving the campaign still in power, no matter the costs to the country and the region.

Trump has been vague and contradictory about his aims in the war. At times, he seems to push for overthrowing Iran's theocracy; other times, he seems to be willing to stop short of that, saying broadly that he wants to ensure Iran is no longer a threat to Israel, the region and the U.S.

That could give him flexibility in declaring that victory has been achieved, especially if real damage starts to show to the U.S. economy.

But if the war stopped right now, both the U.S and Israel would be left with major challenges.

One is Iran's leadership. After an Israeli airstrike killed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the war, Iranian clerics named his 56-year-old son Mojtaba to the position, elevating him to the rank of an ayatollah.

Now Iran's ultimate ruler, the younger Khamenei has long been viewed by analysts as being even more hard-line than his father, with close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. Israel already described him as a target in its campaign, while Trump has said he wanted someone else in the role.

Also, Iran still has its stockpile of highly enriched uranium – one reason for the war that Israel and the U.S. have both pointed to. Iran had been enriching up to 60% purity, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites in June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, likely burying much of the stockpile in the debris. Those sites to this day remain out of the reach of international inspectors.

Mojtaba Khamenei could issue a religious ruling, or fatwa, reversing his father's earlier statements and ordering it to be used to make a weapon. That's something both America and Israel, long believed to be the Mideast's only nuclear-armed state, don't want to see.

EDITOR'S NOTE —Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.

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