Motorsport photo Motorsport Staff Thu, October 29, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC · 4 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement In this moment, Denny Hamlin feels pretty even-tempered on what appears to be another missed opportunity at winning a championship, this time in his planned penultimate campaign at the highest level.
With his win at Talladega on Sunday, Kyle Larson now has a 92.7 percent chance of winning the championship and could actually clinch one race early at Martinsville on Sunday, by gaining three points.
To wit, Hamlin could win the final two races, and he would only have a 60 percent statistical chance of winning the championship that has eluded him for 21 seasons. He is the winningest driver without a Cup Series title and now adds another 'what could have been' campaign to a list that includes more than a figurative handful.
Meanwhile, Hamlin is left wrestling with a playoff run that began as the number one seed and a 25-point advantage before the start of the Southern 500. He was the championship favorite but his team has suffered from some self-inflicted mistakes and bad luck, and trails Larson by 73.
At the same time, his off-season was marred by the loss of his father in a house fire and the antitrust trial his 23XI Racing team successfully waged against NASCAR that culminated in a December trial.
"I'll be honest, my offseason was so bad last year that this somewhat exceeded my expectations for the year," Hamlin said on his Actions Detrimental podcast. "For the first, I don't know, five or six races of the season, I was not even engaged in racing, just not feeling it; just lots of other stuff going on. I think the year has definitely been a success; people would die to have a season like I've had this year, and we still have a great shot to win more races before the end of this year in these last two weeks."
Hamlin says Chevy teams 'suck at the teat' of Hendrick on superspeedways
Denny Hamlin blasts Next Gen as "sports car not meant to be running 200mph"
Larson has won three of the eight races held in the Chase for the Championship thus far. His only blemish came the week before at Phoenix, where he scored no stage points, and struggled to race inside the top-25 before crashing out of the race.
Otherwise, the Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 has been perfect, and outright won this championship. Hamlin tipped his figurative cap.
"I think that if Larson closes it out, he deserved it through the last 10 races, and that is what matters in our sport," Hamlin said. "It used to be the last race as the one that matters. Then it's the last 10 that take precedence over everything else. To me, I would think that if it was a season-long points format, then the 5 probably takes less risk and wrecks less during the regular season. But if you know there is always going to be a reset, then it allows you to take more chances, which is what the whole system was designed to do in the beginning: 'Hey, we want these drivers going all out all the time.'
"I can tell you, all these Chase races have had an intensity to them that shows you the importance of them and that it's huge. I just think the format allows you to get hot and win a championship in what seemingly, statistically, maybe aren't the strongest years that you had, and that's racing. But I'll say this, though: you still look at his overall stats, and they're still pretty damn strong. Certainly, top three to four overall statistics. I think the average finish is maybe high, but that's those ups and downs. If he finishes 30th, that's not because he ran 30th. Except for Phoenix. It's because they had stuff happen."
Adding a stage, fuel cell mod all on table to fix superspeedway fuel saving
NASCAR warned nearly the full field at Talladega for minimum speed violations
Brad Keselowski to address questions about NASCAR future and RFK exit at Martinsville
To read more Motorsport.com articles visit our website .
Source: Sports
0 Comments