The NFL was expecting a key battle in the NFC South, perhaps for first place, this Thursday night. The Atlanta Falcons didn't follow the plan.
The Falcons came into this season with hopes of knocking off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the division, but not much has gone right. The Falcons piled up wins, Michael Penix Jr. didn't take a step forward and then suffered a season-ending knee injury, and Kirk Cousins hasn't saved the Falcons' season. They're 4-9, hoping to play spoiler. The coaching staff, particularly head coach Raheem Morris, might need a strong finish to save their jobs. That's all that's left to play for after Atlanta was eliminated from playoff contention.
Even though the Buccaneers are 7-6 and tied for first place in the NFC South, they've had their issues too. A loss last week to the New Orleans Saints, who were just 2-10 coming into the game, is their fourth in five games. Tampa Bay could have run away with the division title, but instead they're tied with the Carolina Panthers with four games to go. The offense has gone into a slump even as it gets healthy. Baker Mayfield's passer rating over Tampa Bay's last four games is 65.2. Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin have returned but there haven't been any positive progress. Receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are expected to return Thursday night, and perhaps they'll get the offense out of its funk.
It's not a great matchup for Thursday night, though it has some playoff implications for the Buccaneers and perhaps some future ramifications for the Falcons. It's the type of game that probably should have been flexed out of prime time, though the NFL had its best intentions when it scheduled it in May.
Who needs it more?
This isn't hard, though Raheem Morris might have his own opinion. The Buccaneers aren't yet in must-win mode, considering they have two games left against the Panthers. But a loss here would sting. The Panthers would have a better shot at taking the NFC South title with a split against the Buccaneers (the Bucs currentlyhave an edge in the tiebreakeragainst the Falcons, due to record in common games). If the Buccaneers beat the Falcons on Thursday and the Dolphins in Week 17, and split with the Panthers, they'll take the division. The Falcons are already eliminated, though playing for jobs in 2026 is ample motivation.
Key player: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
Evans suffered a broken collarbone in Week 7, and there was no guarantee he'd be back this season. But Evans came back to practice last week and was activated to the active roster this week. Coach Todd Bowles indicatedEvans will play Thursday. The Buccaneers offense has been struggling for weeks, and it can't hurt to add back Evans, who had 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons before this year. Rookie Emeka Egbuka's production has fallen off since he had to take on No. 1 receiver duties, and perhaps he can get a bump with Evans taking up defensive attention. The Buccaneers' hope for taking the division and then winning some games in the postseason might rest on Evans returning and looking like his usual self.
Betting market watch
This game opened Bucs -5.5, but was bet down to -4.5at BetMGM. After a shocking loss to the Saints, Tampa Bay needs this game to keep pace in the suddenly tight NFC South race. The betting public is backing Baker Mayfield, and it will interesting to see if Mike Evans is able to return and provide a much-needed offensive spark.. —Ben Fawkes
Check out more of Ben's work atthe Yahoo Sports betting hub.
Fantasy football storylines
The Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Falcons are playing out the string. Here are three fantasy angles to scout as you watch the game.
Can Baker Mayfield get it going again?Mayfield's been playing hurt and the results show it — he's been the QB27, QB18 and QB20 the last three weeks. Perhaps the return of Mike Evans will help perk up the Tampa Bay passing game.
Will someone help Bijan Robinson in the Atlanta offense?The Falcons enter Thursday on a messy 1-7 skid, and it hurts to be without Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London. Kyle Pitts hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4, but he's nonetheless been the TE6 and TE7 the last two weeks.
Is Bucky Irving ready to pop?He's been useful in two games off injury, checking in as the RB11 and RB13, though he hasn't managed four yards a carry in either game. The Atlanta run defense is gettable, ranking a mere 19th in DVOA. —Scott Pianowski
Check out more of Scott's work at theYahoo Sports fantasy hub.
