TheCollege Football Playoffcommittee doesn't have a straightforward task ahead of Sunday's final rankings.
The top four are pretty set in some order and spots Nos. 5 through 8 also seem set. It's also pretty clear thatAmerican Conference champion TulaneandSun Belt champion James Madisonwill be the final two conference champions in the field afterDuke's overtime win over No. 17 Virginia.
The committee'smain debate will likely center around Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami. The No. 9 Tide wereoverpowered by Georgia in the SEC title game on Saturdayto fall to 10-3. Notre Dame and Miami are both 10-2 — the Hurricanes beat the Irish in Week 1 — and neither played on conference championship weekend.
How far will Alabama fall? Will the Tide fall out of the playoff entirely? If Alabama makes the playoff field, it will be the first three-loss team to qualify for the playoff as an at-large.
Here's our best guess as to what the 12-team playoff field will look like on Sunday morning. The winners are the teams in the field. The loser will be the team among Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami which is left out.
No. 1 Indiana (13-0)
Can you believe the Hoosiers are headed to the Rose Bowl?What happened on Saturday nightagainst Ohio State wasn't a fluke. Indiana went toe-to-toe with the defending national champions and looked like a team more than capable of winning the national title. QB Fernando Mendoza likely sealed the Heisman Trophy with the victory, too, after he was 15-of-23 passing for 222 yards and a TD and an interception.
No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
The Buckeyes aren't going to drop far in the rankings. They may only move a spot. It's impossible to see the committee putting Ohio State and Indiana on the same side of the bracket and we think OSU will end up at No. 2. That would mean a trip to the Cotton Bowl, where Ohio state could await a team like Texas A&M that would have a significant crowd advantage. Remember, Ohio State won the College Football Playoff in 2024 after losing its last game before the postseason.
No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
The Bulldogs looked like true national title threats with their demolition of Alabama on Saturday. Sacks count into the total, but Alabama had minus-3 rushing yards on Saturday in the 28-7 loss. Even taking sacks out of it, Alabama rushed for just 25 yards and the team had 10 carries by players not named Ty Simpson.
Georgia is heading to the Sugar Bowl no matter if it's the No. 2 or No. 3 seed and its potential semifinal game with Ohio State could be an all-timer.
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
The Red Raiders sealed their first outright conference title since 1954 in stylewith a 34-7 winover No. 11 BYU. Tech forced four second-half turnovers over six Cougars drives and turned a game that was relatively close into a blowout. Texas Tech has allowed opponents to fewer than 11 points per game this season and outscored other teams by more than 30 points a game. This is a real national title contender.
No. 5 Oregon (11-1)
After earning the top seed in the first 12-team playoff, Oregon should be the top team among the eight who will play first-round games thanks to its late-season wins over Iowa, USC and Washington. That means a home game at Autzen Stadium against James Madison.
No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)
The Rebels weren't penalized for Lane Kiffin's departure in Tuesday night's rankings and it's hard to see how they will be on Sunday. That's a big advantage. By moving to No. 6, Ole Miss will probably play Tulane again instead of a potential game against Alabama or Miami. Getting a top-six seed was a big deal the way the field played out this year, and Ole Miss lost at the right time.
No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)
The Aggies lost at the wrong time. A&M fell four spots in Tuesday's rankings after their Black Friday loss to Texas and should stay at No. 7 in Sunday's reveal. That means a much tougher home game. But if A&M plays like it had the first 11 games of the season — OK, the first 10.5 games of the season, we're willing to forget that first half against South Carolina — the Aggies should be easily favored to move on to the quarterfinals.
No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)
The Sooners haven't looked like a complete team in weeks. But the committee has seen enough from them to not move them from No. 8. That means a home game against a power program, whether it's Notre Dame or Miami or even Alabama, though that possibility seems unlikely. Can a couple weeks off help the OU offense figure things out?
No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2)
We think the Irish will ultimately be in the playoff because it'd be ludicrous to swap Notre Dame and Miami after Tuesday night. Neither played this weekend. Would we rule it out? Absolutely not. But the most logical scenario feels like the most likely one. Notre Dame moves back up to No. 9 after a week at No. 10 and heads to Norman in the first round. We'd take Notre Dame in that game.
No. 10 Alabama (10-3)
Should Miami be the team in this spot after Alabama's performance on Saturday? Probably. Will the Hurricanes be? We're not sure. Our lean is Alabama, so that's what we're going with even if it feels icky. The Tide didn't look anything like title contenders against Georgia. But the move up to No. 9 a week ago gives the committee cover to drop Alabama down to No. 10 and still keep them in the playoff while also keeping Notre Dame and Miami two spots away from each other for the second straight week.
No. 11 Tulane (11-2)
The Green Wave got a bit of help from the officiating but were also the better team against North Texas in the American title game on Friday night. But Duke's win over Virginia may set the Green Wave up for a rematch they may not want as a No. 11 seed. In this scenario, Tulane would meet Ole Miss. The two teams already played this season in a 45-10 Ole Miss win.
No. 12 James Madison (12-1)
The Dukes won't want to fully believe they're in the playoff until the field is revealed on Sunday. But they should prepare for the Sun Belt's first playoff berth after the Blue Devils' win over Virginia. Had Duke beaten Virginia 40-10, then maybe Duke would be in the playoff conversation. But since the game was close, JMU should sneak into the field and get rewarded with a trip across the country to Oregon. It'll be a first look at Autzen Stadium for coach Bob Chesney as he heads to UCLA and the Big Ten after the season.
On the outside: Miami (10-2)
The Hurricanes will be right to feel aggrieved if Alabama stays in the playoff field and Notre Dame stays ahead of Miami. The Hurricanes have the head-to-head win over Notre Dame as the teams have the same record and Alabama had a rough game against Georgia. If Alabama hung tough with Georgia, it's easier to exclude Miami. But the Tide didn't. And somehow, Miami could still get left out.
