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- The White House makes its closing argument for Trump's Big Beautiful Bill: 'Very big' economic benefits</p>
<p>Ben WerschkulJune 26, 2025 at 4:15 AM</p>
<p>The White House is making its closing argument for President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," and it involves some eye-popping projections for the US economy that don't line up with predictions of independent economists.</p>
<p>How eye-popping? Try economic growth of 4.9% in the short term and up to $11.1 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade if the Senate bill is passed and Trump's agenda is enacted.</p>
<p>"Those are very big numbers," acknowledged Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran on a call with reporters as he laid out a 27-page report.</p>
<p>The findings were immediately met with skepticism by economists who have come to very different conclusions.</p>
<p>The report nevertheless concludes that Trump's entire "suite" of policies — from the bill itself to unilateral deregulation efforts to tariffs — could lead in Miran's words to "very material increases in GDP growth, very material increases in investment activity, and very material increases in real wages and take-home pay."</p>
<p>Stephen Miran is the chairman of Donald Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) ()</p>
<p>The case is essentially that certain provisions in the bill — especially deductions for businesses around things like research and development — will lead to a spike in corporate investment that will then fuel 4.6% to 4.9% in additional GDP growth over the next four years.</p>
<p>It's an aggressive projection to say the least. For context, a recent Tax Foundation estimate pegged that figure at 1.1%.</p>
<p>But that outsized 4%+ growth will then fuel, the White House says, a reduction in federal deficits by roughly $8.5-$11.1 trillion over the standard 10-year budget window. That would lead to thousands of dollars in additional income for a typical family and stabilize America's debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the report.</p>
<p>The rosy predictions from the White House were immediately slammed by a range of economists.</p>
<p>"Well I guess if you are going to make stuff up, go big or go home," offered former Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux.</p>
<p>"No credible economist believes this bill is going to reduce the deficit," she added, noting that "it adds $3+ trillion." Bourdeaux currently runs the Concord Coalition, a group focused on the national debt.</p>
<p>A range of independent projections — from the Congressional Budget Office to the Tax Foundation to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model — have looked at different versions of the bill and reached a similar conclusion of much lower economic growth and a price tag in the neighborhood of $3 trillion over the next decade.</p>
<p>The back and forth comes after the House passed a first version of the bill last month that was then followed by amendments in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune hopes to finalize those amendments and put the entire package up for a series of votes starting Friday.</p>
<p>The deliberations are also being closely watched by Wall Street with the mega-bill also responsible for raising a debt ceiling that is ticking towards a government default as early as Aug. 15, the Bipartisan Policy Center projected in a new report also released Wednesday.</p>
<p>A frantic final series of negotiations and cost projections</p>
<p>The problem for Thune and other Republicans is that a series of fights over different pieces of the bill remain unresolved, with GOP leaders facing a daunting to-do list in the days ahead before another round of voting can begin.</p>
<p>In addition to lawmaker objections over issues like state and local tax (SALT) deductions and Medicaid cuts, recent Senate changes already appear likely to increase the price tag further and have further inflamed the concerns of fiscal hawks.</p>
<p>A look at the tax provisions of the bill in recent days from the Joint Committee on Taxation offered a new price tag that tops $4 trillion.</p>
<p>Wednesday's White House report offered a breakdown of how officials say the top figure of $11.1 trillion is achievable, suggesting that roughly $2.1-2.2 trillion in deficit declines come from the bill itself.</p>
<p>Other cost savings will come from additional reductions in discretionary spending (about $1.8 trillion) and more tariff revenue (another $3.2 trillion).</p>
<p>The tariff revenue figure is an increase from a recent Congressional Budget Office calculation of $2.8 trillion in revenues, but only if tariffs stay at current levels for the next decade.</p>
<p>The final piece of the report focused on deregulatory and energy policies. The White House concluded those steps could reduce the deficit somewhere between an additional $1.3 and $3.7 trillion over the coming decade.</p>
<p>The new numbers further reinforced a divide between between economists and the White House.</p>
<p>After the House bill was released, there was an $11 trillion chasm between what economists said the bill's effects would be and what the White House said Trump's agenda will bring.</p>
<p>The divide is now now even wider, with $15 trillion separating projections released in recent days from each side.</p>
<p>The bill is "far from deficit neutral" added Heather Boushey, a former member of Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisors on Wednesday afternoon. "There are a lot of shenanigans in how they are calculating their numbers."</p>
<p>Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.</p>
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